Oil Prices Surge to Highest Weekly Gain Since Mid‑July Amid Renewed US‑Iran Tensions
Brent and WTI crude jumped 7.6% and 10.4% respectively this week, their steepest rise since July, as US‑Iran clashes raise supply‑risk concerns in the Middle East.
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Desk Analysis
How This Affects the Exchange
Sector Effect
Positive · Buy bias
Oil & Gas sector (e.g., OGDC, PPL) stands to benefit from higher crude prices – Buy bias.
Sectors & Direction
Desk read
Desk call: Buy bias · Positively affected
- Oil & GasPositively affected
- PowerPositively affected
- TransportPositively affected
Companies
Mentions in This Briefing
Sectors: Oil & Gas, Power, Transport — Positive · Buy bias. PSX tickers: OGDC, PPL. Oil & Gas sector (e.g., OGDC, PPL) stands to benefit from higher crude prices – Buy bias.
Full Story
Open on Business RecorderWeekly Oil Market Rally
Crude prices accelerated on Friday, positioning the market for its strongest weekly gain since the week ending 20 July. By 0100 GMT Brent crude futures were up 54 cents (0.6%) to $96.06 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 80 cents (0.9%) to $92.10.
On a seven‑day basis Brent posted a 7.6% increase and WTI a 10.4% rise, driven primarily by heightened geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. Recent US strikes that killed and wounded dozens of Iranian civilians marked the most intense hostilities since July, reviving fears of a supply disruption in the oil‑rich Gulf region.
Geopolitical Drivers
The conflict, which began with coordinated US‑Israeli strikes in late February, entered its seventh month. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that Israel would “cripple” Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities. Meanwhile, US Vice‑President JD Vance reiterated that Washington would not engage in talks with Tehran unless Iran ceased attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded by expanding its list of vessels deemed non‑compliant, threatening fines, confiscation or detention for ships attempting to transit the strait, though Iraqi tankers remain largely cleared.
Market Outlook
ANZ analysts lifted their short‑term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel, citing upside risk if the Middle East conflict intensifies. They noted that while elevated inventories have so far absorbed the initial supply shock, diminishing buffers could pressure the market further.
Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at a possible settlement to the Ukraine war, suggesting that broader geopolitical developments could temper oil’s rally, but the immediate driver remains the US‑Iran confrontation.
Regional Oil Supply Trends
Iraq announced an increase in its oil exports to 2.34 million barrels per day in August, up from 1.35 million bpd in July, with expectations of further growth in September due to heavy discounts and Iranian approvals for Iraqi tankers.
Implications for Pakistani Markets
Higher global oil prices typically benefit Pakistan’s listed oil‑and‑gas firms, while raising input costs for power generators and transport operators. Investors should watch the evolving risk premium on energy stocks and monitor any spill‑over effects on inflation and the broader economy.