Oil Prices Slip Amid Uncertainty Over Renewed US‑Iran Strikes
Brent fell to $95.2 and WTI to $90.77 as investors weighed the risk of renewed US‑Iran hostilities, tempering earlier hopes of supply easing.
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Desk Analysis
How This Affects the Exchange
Sector Effect
Negative · Do not buy
Oil & Gas sector faces lower crude prices, so avoid buying related tickers for now.
Sectors & Direction
Desk read
Desk call: Do not buy · Negatively affected
- Oil & GasNegatively affected
Companies
Mentions in This Briefing
Sectors: Oil & Gas — Negative · Do not buy. PSX tickers: OGDC, PAKC, PPL. Oil & Gas sector faces lower crude prices, so avoid buying related tickers for now.
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Open on Business Recorder## Market Move
On Thursday, global crude benchmarks edged lower. Brent crude futures dropped 43 cents (‑0.45%) to $95.2 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 24 cents (‑0.26%) to $90.77. The decline came as traders assessed the uncertainty surrounding fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran.
## Geopolitical Context
The latest exchange of fire marks the most intense US‑Iran confrontation since July, extending a conflict now in its seventh month. President Donald Trump indicated the renewed campaign would not last “too long” and disclosed that U.S. forces had struck Iranian radar and missile installations in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted a tentative de‑escalation after no confirmed exchanges were reported after midday Wednesday (Sydney time).
## Supply‑Side Signals
Despite the flare‑up, shipping data from Kpler showed only four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, well below the ten‑day average of around 13 vessels. Preliminary figures suggest a slowdown in dark‑ship and ship‑to‑ship transfers that had previously buoyed crude flows. Iran also expanded its list of vessels deemed non‑compliant, warning of fines, confiscation or detention for ships attempting the passage.
## Volume Through Hormuz
The United States reported that 17 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait on Monday, the highest volume since the start of the US‑Israeli war on Iran. However, the reduced vessel traffic and heightened risk perception outweighed the volume boost, pulling prices down.
## Implications for Pakistan
Lower crude prices can pressure earnings for Pakistan’s oil‑and‑gas listed companies, especially those with significant upstream exposure. Investors should monitor the evolving security situation, as any further escalation could reverse the price trend.
## Outlook
Analysts caution that while the immediate price dip reflects short‑term risk aversion, a sustained escalation could again tighten supply and lift prices. Market participants are advised to stay alert to developments in the Strait of Hormuz and any official statements from the U.S. or Iran.