IMF Mission Arrives in Pakistan for Biannual Review of $7bn EFF and $1.4bn RSF
An IMF delegation led by Iva Petrova will conduct a two‑week review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, focusing on fiscal performance, revenue collection and governance reforms.
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Negative · Do not buy
IMF review highlights revenue shortfalls and weak governance reforms, raising fiscal risk for PSX; avoid new exposure.
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Desk call: Do not buy · Negatively affected
- EconomyNegatively affected
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Sectors: Economy, Markets, Banks — Negative · Do not buy. PSX tickers: MEBL, MCB, UBL, HBL, BAHL, FABL. IMF review highlights revenue shortfalls and weak governance reforms, raising fiscal risk for PSX; avoid new exposure.
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Open on ProPakistani## IMF Mission Arrival and Scope
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission is scheduled to be in Pakistan from September 23 for roughly two weeks, concluding in the first week of October. Led by IMF representative Iva Petrova, the team will carry out the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review of the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for the period ending June 30, 2026.
## Planned Meetings and Technical Discussions
The review will open with technical talks at the State Bank of Pakistan, followed by meetings with various government ministries and an introductory session with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. These engagements aim to assess Pakistan’s compliance with IMF programme conditions and to gauge the country’s macro‑economic trajectory.
## Key Focus Areas
- Revenue Collection: The IMF will scrutinise the Federal Board of Revenue’s ability to meet its first‑half‑year structural revenue benchmark, a target that has been repeatedly missed. - Fiscal Performance: While most fiscal and monetary targets are broadly on track, the review will highlight a significant revenue shortfall and instances of policy slippage, notably government intervention in wheat and sugar markets contrary to IMF conditions. - Governance Reforms: Progress on economic‑governance reforms will be evaluated. Official reports indicate that only a handful of the more than three dozen reform targets set for January‑June 2026 have been achieved, despite earlier diagnostics flagging serious governance and corruption weaknesses.
## Potential Disbursement
If the IMF concludes that Pakistan has satisfactorily met the review criteria, the country could receive roughly $1 billion from the EFF and an additional $200 million from the RSF by late November or early December.
## Recent IMF Commentary
In July, IMF country representative Mahir Binici praised Pakistan’s performance under the 2024 EFF, noting strong reforms to date. The upcoming review will test whether that momentum has been sustained.
## Market Implications
The outcome of the IMF review will influence investor sentiment on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Positive findings could unlock further financing and improve confidence in fiscal stability, while a critical assessment may raise concerns over fiscal gaps and governance risks, potentially pressuring equities across sectors.