Hormuz traffic slows after Iran threatens retaliation for US attacks
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven vessels on Monday as Iran warned of retaliation, prompting concerns over oil supply and prompting higher crude price forecasts.
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Desk Analysis
How This Affects the Exchange
Sector Effect
Positive · Buy bias
Higher oil prices from Hormuz disruptions benefit Oil & Gas sector; Buy bias on related tickers.
Sectors & Direction
Desk read
Desk call: Buy bias · Positively affected
- Oil & GasPositively affected
Companies
Mentions in This Briefing
Sectors: Oil & Gas — Positive · Buy bias. PSX tickers: OGDC, HUBC. Higher oil prices from Hormuz disruptions benefit Oil & Gas sector; Buy bias on related tickers.
Full Story
Open on Business Recorder## Reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping activity in the strategic Strait of Hormuz slowed at the start of the week after Iran warned on Monday that it would retaliate against any new U.S. attacks. Kpler data showed that only seven commodity vessels passed through the strait on Monday, down from eight the day before.
## Iran’s warning and regional risk
Iran’s statement highlighted the vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure, including U.S. oil and gas assets, should hostilities intensify. The threat has revived worries about potential supply disruptions in the world’s most important oil‑passing corridor.
## Impact on oil price forecasts
In response to the heightened risk, Goldman Sachs lifted its price outlook for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude for December 2026 and 2027, citing the expectation that Middle‑East shipping disruptions could persist into the next year.
## Shift to alternative routes
While traffic in Hormuz fell, vessels rerouted through the Bab el‑Mandeb strait, where the number of commodity ships rose to 29 on Monday from 17 the previous day. Some ships may be sailing with transponders turned off, a factor not captured in the reported counts.
## Implications for markets
The slowdown underscores the geopolitical sensitivity of oil supply chains and may keep upward pressure on global oil prices, influencing the earnings outlook for Pakistan’s oil‑and‑gas listed companies.