Hormuz Shipping Traffic Drops to Single Digits, Raising Oil Price Outlook
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on Thursday, far below the ten‑day average, as geopolitical tensions curb traffic and limit Iranian crude exports.
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Desk Analysis
How This Affects the Exchange
Sector Effect
Positive · Buy bias
Oil & Gas sector likely to benefit from tighter supply and higher prices – Buy bias on related tickers.
Sectors & Direction
Desk read
Desk call: Buy bias · Positively affected
- Oil & GasPositively affected
- PowerPositively affected
Companies
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Sectors: Oil & Gas, Power — Positive · Buy bias. PSX tickers: OGDC, HUBC. Oil & Gas sector likely to benefit from tighter supply and higher prices – Buy bias on related tickers.
Full Story
Open on Business Recorder## Sharp Decline in Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Preliminary ship‑tracking data released on Friday showed that only seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from eleven the day before and well under the ten‑day average of fifteen ships.
## Composition of the Limited Traffic
Among the seven vessels, two were Panamax ships – one carrying fertiliser and the other sailing in ballast. Five vessels entered the strait, including: - A Panamax dry‑bulk carrier - A Handysize vessel loaded with steel - A Handysize grain carrier - A medium‑range tanker with dirty petroleum products - A Supramax dry‑bulk carrier These figures exclude ships that may have switched off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection.
## QatarEnergy Activity
Two ballast vessels linked to QatarEnergy – *Al Ghashamiya* and *Al Daayen* – were spotted inside the strait on September 9 and 6, respectively, after being seen outside the waterway earlier in the week. Another QatarEnergy‑controlled tanker, *Al Marrouna*, exited the strait on September 10, delivering LNG from Ras Laffan to Pakistan. This marks the first known LNG shipment on a Qatar‑linked tanker since late July.
## Geopolitical Context
Before the Iran‑U.S. conflict began on February 28, the strait handled roughly 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for about 20% of global daily crude oil and LNG supplies. A U.S. blockade reinstated in mid‑July has halted Iranian crude exports. Meanwhile, Iran‑aligned Houthis seized Yemen’s Mocha port and advanced along the Red Sea coast, while traffic through the Bab el‑Mandeb strait remained near normal levels.
## Implications for Markets
The steep drop in Hormuz traffic signals tighter supply routes for crude oil and LNG, which can support higher global oil prices. Continued LNG shipments to Pakistan suggest stable regional gas supplies, benefiting local energy consumers and related businesses.