Brent crude stays under $100 despite sharp drop in Middle East shipments
Brent crude has risen this month but remains below $100 a barrel even as Middle East exports fell from 18 million to about 11 million bpd after the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated.
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Desk Analysis
How This Affects the Exchange
Sector Effect
Negative · Do not buy
Lower Brent prices hurt Oil & Gas sector earnings, so avoid buying related stocks.
Sectors & Direction
Desk read
Desk call: Do not buy · Negatively affected
- Oil & GasNegatively affected
Companies
Mentions in This Briefing
Sectors: Oil & Gas — Negative · Do not buy. PSX tickers: OGDC, HUBC. Lower Brent prices hurt Oil & Gas sector earnings, so avoid buying related stocks.
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Open on Profit## Global Brent price movement
The international benchmark Brent crude has edged higher during September, yet it has not breached the $100 per barrel threshold. Market participants note that the price rally is modest given the recent geopolitical turbulence.
## Impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict on shipments
Escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two critical chokepoints for global oil trade. According to data from Argus, daily crude shipments from Middle‑East producers have fallen sharply to roughly 11 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 18 million bpd before the conflict began seven months ago.
## Why prices remain restrained
Analysts attribute the limited price gain to a combination of ample global oil inventories, ongoing production adjustments by non‑Middle‑East exporters, and expectations that the conflict may not widen further. Consequently, despite the supply squeeze, market sentiment remains cautious, keeping Brent under the $100 mark.
## Outlook for the region and markets
The continuation of the conflict could further tighten supply if additional shipments are halted, but any significant price surge would likely depend on the duration and intensity of the disruptions. Traders are monitoring diplomatic developments closely, as a de‑escalation could quickly restore export volumes and stabilize prices.